The paper dwells on the likely changes that climate change is expected to bring in temperature, precipitation and extreme rainfall, drought, river and inland flooding, storms/storm surges/coastal flooding, sea-level rise and environmental health risks, and who within urban populations will be at risk. The paper informs that the climate change in India can be seen in the perspective of a three part transition:
Thus urbanisation in India will be dominated by:
This will have an important bearing on global climate vulnerability and the potential for mitigation and adaptation. Hence, the future direction of Indian urbanisation is not only an important domestic concern, but also a major international opportunity to demonstrate the viability of a more sustainable development. The ongoing agrarian crisis in rural India could be catalysed by climate change into a migratory route, driven by increases in extreme events, greater monsoon variability, endemic drought, flooding and resource conflict.
The paper argues that the challenge for India is to re-examine whether its current development trajectory and growth framework may be more appropriate than an exclusive engagement with mitigation and greener systems and production. A climate policy that has a closer fit with India’s initial conditions, strengths and capacities may serve both the country and the world’s purposes better than a “recycled” programme of action from a rather different context.
Climate change risks that India will have to face include:Temperature and precipitation changes
Drought
River and inland flooding and extreme rainfall events
Cyclonic storms, storm surge and coastal flooding
Mean and extreme sea-level rise
Environmental health risks
The paper argues that addressing these complex risks is a serious public policy and adaptation management challenge for India. An important new method that can help address these concerns is composite risk assessment and adaptation planning. This would enable a geographically explicit estimation of probabilistic hazard risk, vulnerability and the imputed composite multi-hazard economic risks. Risk prioritisation by hazard, element at risk and location can thereafter be undertaken,assisting in creating evidence-based investment, regional and urban development policies and building a bridge between public agencies, communities and the private sector.
The paper ends by arguing that:
A copy of the paper can be accessed from this link