His latest book, ‘Economics of River Flows: Lessons from Dam Removals from America’ analyses dam decommissioning examples from the United States and raises some pertinent questions about costs benefit analysis of dams in India. His earlier book, ‘Economics of Hydropower’ raised questions about economic efficiency, viability and sustainability of Hydropower Dams in India.
The basic point learnt by me from the study of dam removals is that we are not doing true and correct Cost-Benefit Analysis of hydropower dams. The benefits from generation of electricity are grossly overstated while the costs of generation are understated. Most hydro projects will be proven to be unviable once these corrections are made. Presently there is a huge lobby of Power Ministry, Contractors and rich consumers that is ensuring that such true CBA is not done. These lobbies stand to gain even though the country stands to loose. These groups are pushing the country into an abyss by pushing unviable projects for their gain.
Parbati stage II Project in Himachal Pradesh Photo: with thanks from Kalpavriksha
Chapter No | Item | Total | Employees of NHPC and Government of Uttarakhand | People of India |
1 | Benefits from generation of power | (+) 103.8 | - | (+) 103.8 |
2 | 12% Free power to State | (+) 50.2 | (+) 24.1 | (+) 26.1 |
3 | Employment | (+) 1.5 | - | (+) 1.5 |
4 | Costs | (-) 931.8 | - | (-) 931.8 |
| Total | (-) 776.3 | (+) 24.1 | (-) 800.4 |
5 | Memo: Benefits to employees of NHPC in generation of electricity | - | (+) 121.6 | - |
The purpose of making dam is, ultimately, welfare of the people. Welfare is a holistic concept. Income and consumption is desirable only because it provides satisfaction and happiness. So, making of dams has two opposite effects. It directly hits at welfare by depriving some people of their livelihoods and some people of the satisfaction of seeing the free flow of rivers and the cultural and spiritual well being. On the other hand it provides more satisfaction from consumption of electricity. The net result could be either way. Therefore, a dispassionate assessment of the aesthetic, cultural and spiritual values is necessary.
Sl No | Item | Benefit Estimated by Author | Costs Estimated by Author | Costs Recognized by Planning Commission | Costs Ignored by Planning Commission |
1 | Benefits from generation of power | 103.8 | - | - | - |
2 | 12% Free power to State | 50.2 | - | - | - |
3 | Employment | 1.5 | - | - | - |
4 | Sediment | - | 99.1 | N | 99.1 |
5 | Quality of water | - | 98.4 | N | 98.4 |
6 | Methane emissions | - | 31.7 | Y | - |
7 | Forests | - | 55.3 | Y | - |
8 | Earthquakes | - | 8.4 | Y | - |
9 | Landslides | - | 23.0 | N | 23.0 |
10 | Malaria and health | - | 21.4 | Y | - |
11 | Biodiversity | - | 11.7 | Y | - |
12 | Otters | - | 20.0 | N | 20.0 |
13 | Road accidents | - | 7.1 | N | 7.1 |
14 | Decline in temperatures | - | 7.0 | N | 7.0 |
15 | Sand | - | 5.8 | N | 5.8 |
16 | River Rafting | - | 8.0 | N | 8.0 |
17 | Bridges | - | 3.3 | N | 3.3 |
18 | Aesthetic value of free-flowing water | - | 65.0 | N | 65.0 |
19 | miscellaneous costs | - | 5.0 | N | 5.0 |
20 | Sub Total: Cost of Kotlibhel 1B HEP | - | 470.2 | - | 341.7 |
21 | Add 50% due to cascade effect | - | 235.1 | N | 170.8 |
|
| 155.5 | 705.3 | - | 512.5 |
Authors note: Admittedly, these estimates are dependent on many assumptions made by the author. The author’s basic objection is that the costs enumerated above are ignored by those who support hydropower.
Second aspect ignored is that of biodiversity. EIAs make a list of endangered species that may be affected. But biodiversity is much more than this. Intra-species variations in genes are not looked at. Secondly, where endangered species are found, cosmetic arrangements are made for helping the endangered species to survive. These mostly do not work.
In ignoring these values is that we are actually harming welfare of the people and endangering survival of this living world.
Important lesson for the developing countries is to undertake true CBA right away. They will be squandering huge resources in making the dams which they may pay to remove later.
Free flowing stretch of a river Tunga in Western Ghats Photo: Harish Banugondi
First we asked the pilgrims how much they value taking bath in the Ganga in money terms. Many refused to give a number. Others said its was ‘invaluable’ or ‘priceless’. But nearly one-half put a money value on the bath.
Worshipping River Ganga at Haridwar. Photo: with thanks from http://www.pbase.com/clodreno/image/
Chalakudy River where the Athirappilly Hydel Project is planned in Kerala Photo: Latha Anantha
This approach assumes that there are no absolute values such a spiritual or biodiversity involved. This economic calculation is not relevant where such absolute values are involved.