Navigating the renewable frontier

Scaling India's renewable energy (RE) capacity beyond 1,500 gigawatts (GW) will present significant challenges related to land, water, population, and climate, according to a recent study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). Although India's total RE potential exceeds 24,000 GW, not all of this is achievable due to various constraints. To reach the approximately 7,000 GW required to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070, India must adopt a comprehensive approach that addresses these challenges, including land access, climate risks, land conflicts, and population density.

With an installed RE capacity of 150 GW, and a relatively manageable increase up to 1,500 GW, the study emphasises that moving beyond this point will become increasingly difficult as multiple constraints intensify, potentially narrowing the path to the net-zero target. Renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and green hydrogen are key to India's climate goals, but scaling them up will require strategic land use, improved water management, and robust power grid infrastructure.

The CEEW study is the first to map India's RE and green hydrogen potential by analysing the country's entire landmass using real-world constraints. It employs detailed 5x5 km grid cells to provide a practical assessment of the areas that can be developed. The study finds that high population density is a major barrier to realising India's RE potential, with only 29% of onshore wind potential and 27% of solar potential located in areas with a population density of less than 250 people per square kilometre.

Dr Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, CEEW, said, “India stands at a pivotal juncture in its energy transition. It has set out to do the near impossible: provide energy access to millions of people, clean up one of the world’s largest energy systems, and become a green industrial powerhouse. While our RE potential is vast, the road to net zero is fraught with challenges. From land conflicts and population density to the unpredictable but undeniable impact of climate change, every step forward will demand resilience and innovation. The CEEW study, for the first time, goes into granular details of the county’s landmass to map out where we can build out renewable energy and green hydrogen projects while addressing the challenges of land, people, and compounding, non-linear climate risks. The scale of the task ahead is monumental, yet it is precisely this challenge that will define India’s legacy as a trailblazer for the Global South—a country that charts a low-carbon pathway to prosperity against all odds.”

The study also identifies several states and regions with significant unconstrained RE potential. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Ladakh have substantial low-cost solar potential, with Rajasthan leading at 6,464 GW, followed by Madhya Pradesh at 2,978 GW, Maharashtra at 2,409 GW, and Ladakh at 625 GW. Additionally, Karnataka (293 GW), Gujarat (212 GW), and Maharashtra (184 GW) offer considerable wind potential.

However, much of India's RE potential is located in areas with high climate risks and high land prices; only 18% of onshore wind potential and 22% of solar potential are in regions with low climate risks and low land prices. When considering other constraints, such as population density, land conflicts, and seasonality, the challenges to realising this potential become even more pronounced.

The study underscores the importance of involving all stakeholders early in the renewable project development process to address climate risks and ensure long-term commercial viability. Innovative solutions, such as agrivoltaics in horticulture and rooftop solar in dense urban areas, are suggested to overcome land availability challenges. As RE projects increasingly move into areas with higher climate risks, the reluctance of insurance companies to provide coverage could become a significant hurdle. Effective management of water resources will also be crucial, particularly for green hydrogen production, where water availability directly impacts project costs.

To meet its ambitious RE and green hydrogen targets sustainably and equitably, the CEEW study recommends a holistic approach that includes validating potential through higher-quality data and on-ground assessments, establishing graded land banks that consider RE quality and proximity to infrastructure, and enhancing grid infrastructure resilience to support large-scale deployment. Revising water management policies to prioritise energy production and assessing the need for surface water storage will also be essential for sustaining green hydrogen production.

However, the study acknowledges several limitations in its analysis, such as the use of circle rates to estimate market prices, the lack of data on social and cultural aspects related to land, the absence of power grid mapping to determine RE evacuation potential, and the reliance on modelling to estimate the levelized cost of electricity and green hydrogen. Despite these constraints, the study provides a comprehensive assessment of the challenges and opportunities for scaling India's renewable energy and green hydrogen potential.

The study report can be accessed here